Reporting on Earths changing climate and the people trying to find solutions to one of the biggest challenges of our era. Share. Regarding whether the increased "waviness" is linked to Arctic amplification, we do not have a scientific consensus on such a link. Out West, even if temperatures are mild, the predicted above-average precipitation can help to ease the regions drought. In the graphic below by NOAA-Climate, you can see the average snowfall pattern for weak La Nina years, as expected for this Winter season. If we were to zoom into the tropical region, where sea surface temperatures have the greatest global climate impact, we would see some sea surface temperature differences of up to 0.2 C in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Starting with the seasonal average, we see below-average snowfall over most of Europe, which is indicative of a high-pressure dominant pattern. Thank you for the immense and informative analysis . As a snow lover, I am jealous of Flagstaff residents, though I suppose many of those residents have a different perspective than I do. Durango Herald 3:40 AM MST on Mar 4, 2023. Drought is expected to impact the middle and lower Mississippi Valley this winter. Find out in our long-range forecast for the winter season. Below-average temperatures are forecast in the northern contiguous United States, stretching from northern Michigan to northern Washington state. This is mainly a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in late Winter by UKMO in the south/southwest. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). This calm outlook could well continue, with the Met Office putting the chances of this winter being 'windy' at just 5%. It has reduced the snow potential over the eastern United States. The format of this forecast is simple. Let us know. That's a good point! The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. The most common wind direction in the UK is south-westerly though, so more often than not we get relatively mild air from the Atlantic bringing rain, rather than this cold air from the north and east which often turns any rain to snow.. Also, we have the March snowfall forecast data. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis and data provided by the Climate Mapper website. Looking at the winter predictions for 2022-2023, there may be some weather you need to look out for. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. But what's the long-range outlook for the next three months? Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (DecemberJanuary). August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. As always, we start with the ECMWF, the most often used and highly regarded seasonal forecasting system. This question often boils down to whether there were subtle variations in the sea surface temperature pattern that preconditioned the atmosphere for wetter-than-usual conditions in the region (2). La Nina does change the weather globally, but apart from the direct influence over North America, places like Europe have many other factors in circulation before any La Nina influence can spread this far. C) and did not see any substantial differences than when I considered all La Nina episodes. We can also see more snowfall hinted in this run over southern Great Britain. Those rainstorms may cause flooding in the Ohio Valley and along the Mississippi River, AccuWeather says. WARNING: Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. It relocates the jet stream downwards between the two strong pressure systems, marked above by the blue lines. Again, you can see more snowfall than normal, covering a large area from western Canada down into the northwestern United States and the far upper Midwest. We will take a closer look at the weather influence that La Nina usually shows over North America, which is under a more direct influence. Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. This 2021-2022 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are . The rest of the United States shows less snowfall than normal, but that does not mean no snow at all. This will be followed by the Quadrantid Meteor Shower . This area is still feeling theeffects of the past 3 VERY Dry Winters. The figure above shows the high-minus-low precipitation average differences between these two groups. With temperatures so warm winter and the chance of snow feel somewhat distant. Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. Looking at the overall average forecast and comparing it to the previous forecast, we can see that the latest run has less snowfall over most of Europe, except towards the east and south. My calculation that follows confirms this suspicion. Please choose your location from the nearest places to : Warnings have been issued for snow and ice by the Met Office, as a northerly airflow will bring some disruptive weather through next week. I first averaged the 30 simulations for each of the 21 La Nia winters, giving me 21 precipitation outcomes. The seasonal outlook looks at temperature and precipitation trends between December 2021 through February 2022. To determine this signal, I first calculated the average of the December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation across all 30 ensemble members for each La Nia. On the other side of the country, temperatures in the Southwest and the Rockies are expected to be well above average. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. La Nia could enter rare third straight year. Place or UK postcode. It's an event unprecedented in our lifetimes. . This will be the 3rd year in arow where the Irrigation systems in thisarea have Very little to NO Water Stored for the Irrigation Season. 30 forecast for Winnetka! December is favored to be the chilliest month on the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-normal temperatures expected from the Great Lakes down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. What its also doing though, is helping develop the kind of south-westerly airflow which is spinning in some of these periods of wet and windy weather, but also the warmer kind of continental air over the UK much more than average for the time of year.. Winter Forecast 2022-2023, Meteorologist Chris Tomer 5 months ago Winter Camping in Snowfall - Forester Tree Hug Tarp Setup - Spit Roast - Bushcraft Bowsaw Swedwoods 240K views 3 weeks ago. Europe features mostly warmer than normal conditions over northern parts, with a storm track over the southwest . A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. Submitted by Scott Yuknis on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 04:55, In reply to About comments by rebecca.lindsey. The Farmers' Almanac has officially released their 2022 winter forecast. Winter Forecast for Southwest Michigan for 2022/2023 Impactful Winter Weather On the Way A storm system will move into Lower Michigan for Friday, bringing primarily snow but some light freezing rain could mix in across the far south. The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. Ultra long range detailed weather forecast for South England. We know that all La Nias feature below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, by definition, but the details vary from event to event. Can MJO interfere with ENSO climate? The January snowfall forecast shows more potential in northern and western Europe. Warmer than normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States, eastern United States, and eastern Canada. It says that temperatures there could drop 4 degrees below normal for the month something that could result in a damaged citrus crop and stunned iguanas. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up later. Light winds. Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. During the meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) of 2022-23, average temperatures ranged from 16.7F at Medford, WI (COOP) to 25.7F at Boscobel Airport, WI (ASOS). But that does not mean it has no impact. Just checking the maps at this site, we can see some regions, like you mention, that have been drier than normal over the past 60 days. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. That's still down 45% from a year earlier, however. We have seen a stronger-than-normal jet stream throughout the Southwest, which has brought the wetter conditions this winter. The Farmers' Almanac just released its winter 2022 extended forecast report, and for the most part, winter will be pretty chilly for all of the country, but with some major fluctuations in. The storied old journal's extended weather forecast predicts "plenty of snow, rain and mush as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! . Regarding the "warm blobs" you mention, most studies suggest that extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies generally do not have a major impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, so I suspect that the two warm blobs you mention did not have a major impact on Southwest U.S. precipitation. Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. 16 day. There's a chance of snow for some of us, though exactly where it'll fall and in what quantity is yet to be determined. Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods.