Polling changes expose a chink in the Conservatives' electoral armour However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. Automotive. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Labour opens up historic poll lead over Tories after days of market This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. NewsNow: YouGov news | Breaking News & Search 24/7 Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. Britain Elects. Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. Easy-to-digest video clips. Please ensure your password has at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines not qualifying as Scottish Opinion Poll news might appear - please feel free to contact us regarding any persistent issues. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Please click 'Sign in and Subscribe' to continue. Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Latest Scottish Independence Opinon Poll Data - Which Side Is Ahead? 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Labour conference: Party surges in polls as 'clown show' economics Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. Voting Intention: Con 25%, Lab 48% (9-10 Nov 2022) | YouGov Scottish independence polls & surveys | YouGov Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. Trump. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? YouGov Westminster voting intention If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Poll suggests Conservatives could be in danger of losing more than a A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. New poll shows majority of Scots in favour of same-sex marriage All Rights Reserved. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. An existing account was found for this email address. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Five missions focused on fixing the fundamentals, says Starmer ahead of major speech, The decline and fall of the one nation Conservative. Question asked. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Truss Widens UK Poll Lead as U-Turn on Public-Worker Pay Gives Sunak Hope Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. Rishi Sunak fails to win back Conservative support in Wales, poll The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. Britain Elects. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. 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